The US-Japan summit held on April 10 showed that cooperation between the two countries will be heightened to the next level regarding security in the Western Pacific region. In addition to jointly responding to China's threats to Taiwan, including strengthening the link between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. Forces in Japan, it was made clear that the Senkaku Islands, over which Japan and China have a territorial dispute, are subject to the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. What attracted attention at the US-Japan summit was the announcement of the start of discussions on Japan's accession to AUKUS (a security alliance between the US, UK, and Australia).
Ocus is a security cooperation group formed by three countries, including the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, in September 2021 to counter China's expansion of influence in the Pacific region. At the time, Australia's surprise announcement that it would cancel its next submarine project jointly with France and introduce nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom surprised many countries. This was because the United States was transferring its nuclear technology to another country for the first time since it transferred its nuclear technology to the United Kingdom in 1958.
France, which was the target of contract termination at the time, protested fiercely, and China also strongly expressed concern and discomfort over its aggressive response to its country. Over the course of three years, it was agreed that the nuclear-powered submarines provided to Australia would be built based on British designs, meaning that Britain and Australia will operate the same nuclear-powered submarines in the future. It is known that from 2023, Australian submarine-related civil and military personnel will begin to accumulate experience by being deployed to submarine bases and submarine manufacturers in the United States and the United Kingdom. However, because construction of new submarines requires the construction of various infrastructure, it is expected that they will not be deployed until the late 2030s. To solve this problem, the U.S. and British navies have recently expanded the number of nuclear submarines that call in Australia, and are also considering a plan to permanently deploy U.S. Navy submarines to Australia starting in 2027.
Although Okus is known for its supply of nuclear submarines, it actually encompassed a broader range of issues internally. At the end of the White House's official document announcing the launch of Ocus in 2021, it included a statement that it would pursue expansion in technological areas such as cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, and underwater drones. It was a recognition that expansion of cutting-edge technological capabilities was necessary to confront China militarily. However, although the UK and Australia have something in common as Anglo-Saxon maritime countries, from the US's perspective, there were limits to expecting joint development of cutting-edge technology and large-scale investment participation.
On April 5, 2022, the United States announced a plan to divide the shape of Ocus into pillars 1 and 2. In the case of Pillar 1, which refers to Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which were the first member countries of Ocus, the membership is no longer expanded, and nuclear submarines are provided and cooperated only among Pillar 1 countries. In the case of Pillar 2, in addition to the cyber capabilities, AI, quantum technology, and underwater drones mentioned above, the categories included hypersonics, electronic warfare, information sharing, and military innovation using civilian technology. The idea was to focus technological elements to win the competition with China in Pillar 2 and have related countries join Pillar 2.
U.S. seeks cooperation among allies in military technology
The reason why the United States, which possesses the world's best technology, is seeking cooperation between countries in military technology is because China's technological leap is progressing rapidly. According to an analysis by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in June 2023, China has an advantage in 19 of the 23 technologies in the Pillar 2 area. In the field of hypersonics, where technological competition between major powers is fierce, more than 50% of papers are published in China, and seven of the top 10 research institutes are located in China. The United States feels the limitations of blocking China's development on its own, and has established Pillar 2 in Ocus with the idea of supplementing this with cooperation with its allies.
For a country with technological and financial capabilities to join Pillar 2, it means being prepared for confrontation with China, so corresponding compensation and incentives are needed. To this end, the United States has announced that it plans to open technology and know-how related to electronic warfare that has not been disclosed to other countries at all to Pillar 2 countries. In addition, in the case of the main fighter F-35, software is very important, and differences were made between those for the U.S. Air Force and those for sale to other countries, but there is also an emerging prospect that this will also be supplied to Pillar 2 countries at the same level as the U.S. through upgrades. Instead, there is a condition that countries included in Pillar 2 must improve their joint operation capabilities with the United States by producing and improving new weapons according to the open system architecture led by the United States. It is also known that a prerequisite will be added to improve interoperability in the command and control sector to ensure that there are no obstacles to the US military's ability to carry out joint operations with its allies.
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| Ocus (a security alliance of the US, UK, and Australia) is pursuing a plan for Japan to participate in Ocus' 'Pillar 2', which focuses on advanced technologies such as AI. U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hold a summit meeting in Washington, D.C. on April 10. Photo AP Union |
The United Kingdom and Australia initially opposed the United States' Pillar 2 plan. Just the sharing project of strategic weapons called nuclear submarines requires solving complex problems over a long period of time, but there are concerns that if more countries participate and expand the target, the complexity of the project will only increase and the nuclear submarine project may not proceed properly. . In addition, there is deep-rooted distrust between Britain and Australia toward Japan. Contrary to our general perception, Japan's information protection and technological security are quite weak. If Japan joins Pillar 2, there is a possibility that strategic technology and information will be leaked to China through Japan. From a perspective that has long shared know-how in information sharing and secrecy as a Five-Eyes country (an information sharing alliance of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), Japan is thought to be difficult to trust. In the case of Japan, it is known that Japan initially took a cautious stance toward the United States' request for participation in Pillar 2, fearing a backlash from China. However, as the United States clearly presented that the subject of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty included the Senkaku Islands, Japan ultimately decided to join Ocus Pillar 2. The confrontation structure with China has become clearer.
Korea’s membership in Ocus
As Japan's participation in Ocus becomes more visible, interest in Korea's participation is also increasing. In 2023, the British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee proposed a plan to invite Korea and Japan to Ocus at the same time. Although the US and the UK were positive about Korea's joining Ocus, Australia was concerned that interest in its own submarine business would weaken, so its position was to first let Japan join and then consider Korea's membership, and Australia's position is similar to this one. This appears to have been reflected in the decision.
Our country's joining Ocus will mean that the level of alliance with the United States will be raised to the next level and will symbolize a change to an equal position, so joining Ocus will receive public support. However, this could become another source of tension and conflict because it connotes elements of deepening confrontation with China and strengthening military cooperation with Japan. One clear thing that Japan's announcement of the start of Ocus membership negotiations shows is that the conflict structure between China and the United States in the Pacific is intensifying, and the time when we too have to choose a side is getting closer.
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